After decades of chaos, corruption, criminal interference, expropriation, international intrigue and military coups, the world’s most significant new iron-ore project has made its first export of the ferrous ore.

A grand ceremony of those involved in making it happen took place on November 11, marking a major milestone in Guinea’s development, a key step towards its future potential.

This first export is set to re-shape the global iron-ore market, giving the West African country significant influence and simultaneously reducing China’s dependence on two Australia-headquartered companies for its iron-ore supply. In 2024, CoalTrader.com noted that Australia accounted for 54% of global iron-ore exports in 2023, with China importing 73% of global supply.

The famous – and at times infamous – Simandou project began 27 years ago and has been at the heart of multiple scandals, including an expropriation and flipping attempt, more than one global corruption scandal and, some suspect, the motivation behind more than one military coup d’état. But with the first confirmed export of 9 850 t of Simandou’s high-grade iron-ore loaded from the port of Morebaya, Guinea confirmed its place in mining history and future for the global iron-ore market.

Simandou’s development was repeatedly delayed as successive Guinean governments – military and civilian – insisted on the development of a 600 km multiuse railway to link the mines to the country’s westernmost coast, where a deep-water port also had to be built. Successive Guinean governments – for whom Liberia and Sierra Leone’s brutal civil wars of the 1990s were still too fresh a memory – resoundingly rejected a far shorter route running south to Simandou’s nearest port in Liberia.

Australia-based mining giant Rio Tinto expects that its SimFer and Winning Consortium Simandou’s (WCS) combined yearly output will be 120-million tonnes of high-grade (65%) iron-ore by 2028 from its Nimba mountain mines in Guinea’s far south-eastern corner. China has significant stakes in both SimFer and WCS.

The first exports come at a critical time politically, as Guinea is set to hold elections that should bring four years of military rule to an end. Days before the first ore exports, Colonel Mamady Doumbouya announced his candidacy for the Presidency, using every ounce of Simandou’s success to his electoral advantage. He will capitalise on the fact that the first ore has successfully left Guinea’s shores, dramatically changing its trajectory and prospects as the country emerges as the world’s new high-grade iron-ore supplier.

It is a significant feather in his cap, largely thanks to his cajoling that the project was completed without further hitches. While leading the junta, Doumbouya also reformed the Constitution, blocking his two best-known opponents from running. Guineans will be voting for a French-style executive President with two seven-year terms. If Doumbouya wins – which seems likely because he is popular and has used his time as military ruler to take steps to ensure his victory – he could be in office until 2040.

For most investors, that continuity is a good thing, although some miners may smart. Doumbouya and his Mines Minister have been forceful and imposing in their approach to mining investment. They have followed a strict “use it or lose it” approach to mining licences, revoking licences from companies that have failed to meet their contract commitments and build local beneficiation infrastructure.

In May, the military junta revoked 51 licences in bauxite, gold, diamond, graphite and iron-ore because there had been no development on those licences. In August, the junta revoked Emirates Global Aluminium’s (EGA) bauxite mining concession, transferring it to newly created State-owned entity Nimba Mining Company, after EGA reportedly failed in its commitment to build an alumina refinery. New deals with the government give it the right to rescind licences if performance targets are not met. In December 2024, China’s State Power Investment Corporation signed a deal to build an alumina and power plant in Boffa Prefecture. The project’s completion target is the end of 2027, to be up and running by 2028. The military government reserved the right to withdraw the concession should production not be achieved by December 2028.

Simandou’s first exports and an approaching end to military rule mark another significant step in Guinea’s post-independence journey – one that should bring stability and greater national wealth.

Whether Doumbouya manages to stay in power without further military intervention will depend on two things. One predates independence: how to balance the interests of the dominant Fulani (40%), Malinké (30%) and Soussou (20%) groups, which make up the bulk of the population. The other pressing modern problem is how to manage GenZ; Guinea has a median age of 18.